Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India on Monday stated that GDP will not be impacted if the COVID-19 vaccination tempo picks up.
“The second wave which has come in several countries earlier has always been very severe than the first wave. But the important point to distinguish is, for all these countries there was no vaccination at that point in time. But India is witnessing a second wave in the midst of vaccination. So, the key to averting some impact on the GDP and other adverse impact is to vaccinate the people at a large growth rate than what we are doing currently,” he stated in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
A Prasanna, Chief Economist of I-Sec PD additionally stated that though there’s a surge in COVID-19 circumstances, they aren’t taking a look at altering their GDP forecasts.
“I would think that there is no danger to this year’s GDP numbers. Even the implied numbers for Q4 which we have given based on the full year estimate are still conservative. Initially, when the CSO data came out, there was a thinking that maybe those number could be revised up, but maybe now there are some adjustments because of all the developments. But more or less I think we should be hitting that number,” he stated.
However, Prasanna believes that international economies will present divergent developments relying on COVID unfold.
“Globally, the US seems to be doing quite well. I think their vaccination program has been a success. Europe has been slow on the vaccination and so they are more hit. So there is going to be a bit of divergence in terms of global demand conditions and therefore external demand also. So, I would not say that it is all negative for India, but parts of export demand will definitely get impacted,” he stated.
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